Progress: Ten Reasons to Look Forward to the Future

Johan Norberg’s "Progress: Ten Reasons To Look Forward To The Future" is a must-read work of such staggering scope in so many ways and on so many levels that I scarcely know where to begin. So . . . let’s talk Star Trek. It’s become commonplace to read about many of Star Trek’s technological innovations coming true now, 200 years before the future depicted in the show. But what if some of Star Trek’s cultural predictions started coming true now? What if the fundamental problems of human survival were being solved — not 200 years from now — but today? What if poverty, for instance — or hunger — or pollution — was being eradicated right now instead of 200 years from now? “Despite what we hear on the news and from many authorities, the great story of our era is that we are witnessing the greatest improvement in global living standards ever to take place.” — Norberg Today, people like President Trump paint a horrific picture of the world because they want you to be terrified of it. “American carnage”, anyone? But Johan Norberg presents the facts that overwhelmingly support the proposition that the human race is not just surviving but thriving. And not only are we not destroying each other, by and large — violence is actually at an all-time low — but we’re also not destroying the planet. Tired of the dystopian Malthusian pessimism you’ve been hearing for the past several decades? If Norberg is right, politicians on both left and right will have a harder time finding crises to exploit. Everyone who’s worried about the rise of emotionalism on both the left and the right should read this book. Beginning with hunger, Norberg takes ten major components of human progress and illuminates every aspect of them, showing just where they come from and the impact they have had — and are continuing to have. It is almost as though Norberg has taken the classic essay, I, Pencil, and expanded it to encompass the whole of human history. The implications of the facts that Norberg leads the reader through are kaleidoscopic and breathtaking. In chapter after chapter, Norberg shows us how the human race is solving its greatest historical challenges — not in some far off future, but right now, before our eyes — not those of our children or grandchilren! And not just in the “privileged”, most technologically advanced societies, but everywhere. The number of people around the world who are now thriving that would have faced certain starvation and death just fifty years ago is stunning. Back then, pundits were predicting widespread famine on a global scale. Since then, the opposite has happened! And instead of being overwhelmed by a population explosion, people everywhere are having less children because more of them actually survive now. Norberg makes it clear that private property rights have been just as important in motivating farmers to be more productive as advances in agricultural technology have been — even in China, where local farmers defied the Communist Party to work their own land and became so successful that the Party endorsed the farmers’ reforms. Within two years, the communes of the “Great Leap Forward” were gone and productivity skyrocketed. No longer did farmers have to roam the countryside begging for food. It must be noted here that Progress is not for the squeamish — Norberg does not shy away from reminding us of what it was like for past generations to live through times of crop failures and the resulting famines — down to and including cannibalism. Progress shows that a future free of poverty, hunger and pollution is not only possible, but happening right now — and it’s because of individual rights and economic freedom, not the socialism of Star Trek. Progress makes it clear that the reason why poverty was endemic for so much of human history was the absence of freedom for so much of human history. Progress is not a call to complacency. The progress we enjoy today comes from a very real expansion of freedom around the world. That didn’t happen by itself and it won’t continue to happen unless we keep working to see that it does continue. The point is, our efforts are paying off and that is why we need to keep working on these issues. People will have better lives if we continue to uphold their right to live their lives as they see fit. It may seem like a Sisyphean effort in a time when authoritarian doomsayers are using emotion in a desperate bid to distract people from the actual facts to try to make us turn away from freedom. But, in Progress, Johan Norberg demonstrates that there may actually be light at the end of the tunnel. Yes, there are real problems in the world. There always have been and always will be. But problems will always have solutions. That is an actual fact. Progress is concrete evidence that the future is now and it can and will get even better — but only so long as we continue to work to see that it does. Read it!

I’ve always concerned myself a very curious person, interested in philosophy, psychology, and how humans have changed through out history. This book was written specifically for someone like me. I sped through it and plan to go back over my notes and highlights. There are a lot of great facts with citations to read more about areas you may want to explore more. That being said, I knocked it down one star because there’s usually a page or two of each chapter that feels like facts recited one after another, without transition sentences, and it can become tedious reading these portions. Even in those sections lots of fascinating facts and stats!

The author counters the professional pessimism of, for example, the media and a lot of politicians with a flood of well-researched and well-balanced arguments. He shows convincingly that almost nothing was better in former days when it comes to conflict, health, economy, housing conditions, and other pertinent human circumstances. Where is the maecenas who is willing to donate a copy of this book to all students in, say, upper secondary schools? Combined with a smart curriculum of some kind so they really will read it. That would be a charitable action of the highest value and a great way to support fact-based knowledge and scientifical views. We need more of this. Furthermore, the book is written in a limpid and easily accessible English. Being Swedish, like the author, and thus having access to an authorised Swedish version of the book, I still do not regret reading it in English.

What a fantastic read. I recommend Norberg's Progress to anyone and everyone as it highlights and heavily footnotes the facts of human progress worldwide over the last 200 years. We are happier, healthier, safer, freer, more equal and live in more just societies then ever before. The enlightenment, liberalization, industrialization and free market innovation have raised the standard of living 3000% since 1800 while nearly obliterating child labor and illiteracy, and many other societal and individual scourges. Many trends are accelerating - - for example, the unprecedented rate that the acceptance and rights of gay people are expanding worldwide. Read it with glee, and pass on the good news.

Molto interessante; aiuta a guardare al mondo e all'oggi da una prospettiva positiva e anche a fondarla su elementi quantitativi, per non restare prigionieri di "percezioni" quasi sempre qualitative e spesso anche emotive. Ne consiglio senz'altro la lettura ( auspicando che venga anche tradotto in italiano per consentirne una diffusione anche fra chi ha fastidio o difficoltà a leggere in inglese) Francesco

Très intéressant. Ce livre bat en brèche de nombreuses croyances pessimistes et défaitistes sans cesse relayées par les médias. Oui l'humanite va de mieux en mieux, et cela fait du bien de pouvoir apprécier toutes ces évolutions sur la base de nombreux faits et chiffres.

Most of us are not swayed by rationalised argument or fact but we are much more influenced by our personal narratives and how we emotionally or intuitively respond to the information we receive through our senses. And most of us seem to feel that we have never lived in such trouble times and that we've never had it so bad. And this has resulted in us making decisions such as leaving Europe or voting for a president in America who seems closer to narcissistic madness because "things are bad, real bad" - but that's just my story and how I might be feeling, after all bad news is all around us and on a never ending stream of news bites. However, what this book does is present a wide range of factual arguments that draw on history and numbers/ data (and other wonderful works that include Angus Deaton and Steven Pinker) that actually show that we are living in a much better times and that we can only truly realise through perspective and seeing how fortunate we are than those in the past. Violence is a lot less of problem then it is ever been in the past. In 1900 the majority of people lived the same life span of the chimpanzee (of about 40 years) and now we average a life span almost twice as long. We no longer die by the thousands and millions of diseases such as cholera, smallpox, measles and the plague. Sanitation and medication save many more lives along with the ability to grow foods that we now no longer live in worry of starvation and famine and are now more risk of death and amputation through obesity. Did you know that there has never been a famine in any democratic nation, I never knew. Though slavery is prevailing we actually have many more people living under liberty and freedom than serfdom and enslavement. And governments of the world are there are at least trying to stop slavery and see it is been long. In my lifetime I've seen progress in gay rights equality, racial equality, gender equality and disability equality. The book covers a number of themes including poverty, sanitation, education, life expectancy, violence, equality, literacy, The environment and the future. I'm still going to worry about climate change though. A few facts from the beginning of the book include these: We’ve made more progress over the last 100 years than in the first 100,000 • 285,000 more people have gained access to safe water every day for the last 25 years • In the last 50 years world poverty has fallen more than it did in the preceding 500. Well worth a read if you think we're living in terrible times that have never been worse. And perspective is a wonderful thing. The problem is that people are more interested in bad news and stories (something that helps explain why people watch "Eastenders") than ideas that might reflect we're living in good times.

Lesen sollte das Buch jeder - Mann und Frau. Besonders nützlich ist es für den, der über unsere Gesellschaft und unsere Zukunft nachdenkt: für das Paar, das einen Kinderwunsch hegt (nur wer wagt gewinnt), der Politiker, der Schüler, der Lehrer, der Finanzinvestor, der Schichtmeister in einem Chemieunternehmen, der sich fragt, ob er einer guten Sache dient - und der Seelsorger, der Menschen auch im Diesseits Mut machen möchte. Gefallen hat mir zunächst die Verständlichkeit des Buches. Es ist in einem einfachen Englisch geschrieben; der Reader macht es leicht, sich unbekannte Vokabeln entweder übersetzen oder erläutern zu lassen. Die Struktur ist klar, ein einfacher Aufbau: Fortschritt wird nach Lebensbedürfnissen gruppiert, die an Maslow erinnernd aufsteigend sortiert sind, von sehr grundlegenden materiellen Bedürfnissen (Nahrung, Wasser/Abwasser, ..Gewalt) zu kulturellen (...Bildung, Freiheit, Gleichheit). Inhaltlich finde ich gut, dass das Buch die heutige Lebenssituation der früherer Generationen (manchmal bis zur Antike oder Steinzeit, überwiegend ab etwa 1500) gegenüberstellt und sehr eindrücklich und lebensnah häufig mit Zitaten aus der jeweiligen Zeit schildert. Anders als noch in meinem Geschichtsunterricht geht es um normale Menschen nicht um das Leben herausragender Personen. Die Unterschiede werden sehr deutlich - und vor allem die Verbesserung. Es wird sehr klar, dass technische und wissenschaftliche Entwicklungen wie z.B die Erfindung der Impfung ein Haupttreiber des Fortschritts waren, vor allem die Industrialisierung. Zum Beispiel wird überzeugend dargelegt, dass etwa 40% der heute lebenden Menschen nichts zu essen hätten, wenn nicht ein Forscher (Fritz Haber) und ein Chemie Manager (Carl Bosch von der BASF) das Verfahren zur Herstellung von Kunstdünger entwickelt und technisch realisiert hätten. In meiner Schulzeit habe ich durchaus die Reaktionsschritte der Ammoniaksynthese gelernt und Mol-Gewichte berechnet, nicht aber ihre immense gesellschaftliche Bedeutung verstanden. Die Aussagen im Buch zu diesem Punkt finde ich durch eine kurze Google-Abfrage in anderen Quellen bestätigt. Weiter finde ich gut, dass der Autor die Ursachen der jeweiligen Fort-Schritte benennt und seine Ansicht durch Fakten belegt. Darüber hinaus gibt er Zahlen, z.B die Zahl der durch besseres Saatgut zusätzlich ernährten Menschen. Gut ist auch, dass der Autor keine rosa Brille verteilt; die unerwünschten Nebeneffekte des Fortschritts werden klar benannt (z.B. Trinkwasserbelastung durch Düngung). Die Hauptaussage des Buches: Technik und Wissenschaft lösen Probleme - und sind auch der richtige Ansatz zur Lösung der Folgeprobleme. Und siehe da: es gibt bereits Chemikalien, durch die die Pflanzen den Dünger besser aufnehmen, wodurch man weniger Dünger auf dem Boden ausbringen muß und in Folge weniger ins Grundwasser gelangt. Weniger gut hat mir gefallen, dass der Autor in den ersten Kapiteln sehr klar und zielstrebig die Fortschrittselemente darlegt und die Ursachen klar benennt und quantifiziert, in den späteren Kapiteln dann aber ein bißchen an intellektuellem Biß verliert und seinen Zettelkasten der Gelehrsamkeit über den wehrlosen Leser gießt. Das empfand ich als ermüdend, ebenso wie einige Anekdoten, die ich bereits an anderem Ort gehört habe. Nicht so gut fand ich auch, dass der Autor seine Sicht der Geschichte stark auf den angelsächsischen und skandinavischen Bereich ausrichtet. Dies führt zu Verkürzungen: z.B, schreibt er (pos 1818) "...in the 1870s elementary education became compulsory...."; ok, das stimmt wohl für Wales; im ländlichen Herzogtum Pfalz-Zweibrücken (klein, fein, reformiert und mit Schweden verbandelt) wurde die Allgemeine Schulpflicht in 1592 eingeführt, für Knaben - sowie Mädchen. Auch scheut sich der Autor nicht, die üblichen Vorurteile gegenüber der katholischen Kirche zu bedienen. Die gute alte Geschichte vom mutigen David Galilei und dem bösen bornierten Goliath Kirche wird brav frei nach Brecht wiederholt. Ein Blick in Wikipedia hätte eine etwas differenziertere Sicht ermöglicht. Gleichwohl - das Buch bleibt in seinen Grundaussagen überzeugend: Das Leben der Menschheit ist insgesamt für die meisten von uns besser als es vor einigen Jahrhunderten gewesen wäre. Man kann hoffen, dass es so weitergeht. Möge dies zumindest für 2017 wahr werden!

This is an excellent book; it dispels the current thought (media information) that the world is getting more dangerous and our future is getting dimmer. Norberg addresses different areas such as sanitation, poverty, and life expectancy (10 altogether) and shows the tremendous progress we have made. He also addresses the media's obsession with what is wrong with the world and why (if it bleeds it leads). I learned a considerable amount, and I found it a very uplifting book. This should be on the reading list of all schools so our students would understand how fortunate we are and that the future is bright!