The Art of Uncertainty: How to Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk and Luck (Pelican Books)

I love this book. You can tell that it is written by an expert in communication. It navigates complex concepts in an easy to read manner. The wealth of knowledge in it goes beyond statistics, risk and chance. It is extremely well organised and excellently written. I have really enjoyed reading this book.

Bought this as a gift for my husband he s very pleased with it ...easy to order and it was delivered promptly

I bought this as a present for my wife. She enjoyed it and found it informative. In parts it is quite technical, to fully appreciate it you probably need to be above average numeracy, but good for anyone who wants to understand day to day numbers and statistics we get bombarded with.

Another superb contribution from this famous statistician who made major contributions to public understanding of the Covid epidemic (see on this site). There was nothing comparable to this when I was at medical schooI ("Facts from Figures", was a bit indigestible) where I doubt statistics and probability is formally taught anymore. But they should be if, for example, clinical data and trials are to be better understood by medics. The Reverend Bayes also deserves greater recognition. I predict there is very little chance of this book being bettered for what it is - a serious introduction to statistics for the non-expert.

Excellent book about probability and risk. Not at all mathsy but very readable and interesting. Full of common sense and avoids hysterics (such as eating toast will kill you). Recommended

There is much fantastic information in this but it is not an easy read. Still very maths-technical (which you might expect) and some of it just frankly tedious to read. I ended up giving up on it half way through. The maths-technical writing outweighed the interesting and accessible parts. It isn’t written at text book/journal level of writing, but it certainly is not an easy read either. I had hoped for some personal learning achievement but much either went over my head or was too dull to persevere with. For the record I ain’t thick!

You don't need to be a maths or stats person to be able to follow this book although it does help to have some knowledge of probability. I like how it relates stats to real world situations. Once I have finished thisI will have a look at his other book the Art of Statistics.

Brilliant and fascinating

Très interéssant

This one is insightful. Tons of wisdom distilled in this amazing book

Questo libro di Sir David Spiegelhalter è un'opera fondamentale e autorevole per chiunque voglia comprendere con rigore i concetti classici di statistica e probabilità applicati alla vita quotidiana, al rischio e alla fortuna. In qualità di indiscussa autorità, Spiegelhalter espone con grande rigore scientifico e chiarezza le basi per un'adeguata alfabetizzazione al rischio. Il testo è estremamente ben fatto nell'analizzare come quantificare la nostra ignoranza, interpretare le probabilità e correggere i bias cognitivi che distorcono la percezione dell'incertezza. Non a caso, è la trattazione più solida e pragmatica dell'incertezza, ancorata saldamente alla sua espressione numerica. Tuttavia, il lettore deve essere consapevole che l'opera si concentra sul consolidamento e sulla riaffermazione di principi statistici classici già noti agli addetti ai lavori. Nonostante la chiarezza espositiva, manca di un vero e proprio salto metodologico o di una visione interdisciplinare radicale che vada oltre i confini del campo statistico. Per chi valuta la dimensione dell'originalità in senso più ampio, filosofico e interdisciplinare, un'opera come "Navigare l'incertezza: trasformare imprevisti in opportunità" di Matteo Maglio emerge come molto più stimolante e innovativa, fondendo approcci di ingegneria dei sistemi e filosofia, proponendo una metodologia operativa e una visione d'insieme che si rivela più ispiratrice e immersiva, offrendo strumenti per agire attivamente nell'incertezza, piuttosto che limitarsi a misurarla. In sintesi: - Punti di Forza di Spiegelhalter: rigore, autorevolezza, eccellente comunicazione del rischio statistico. La migliore guida sui numeri dell'incertezza. - Punto debole di Spiegelhalter: non aggiunge nulla di nuovo rispetto a quanto già pubblicato. "The Art of Uncertainty" è comunque un libro di alto livello per la sua eccellenza scientifica, ma, per l'originalità intellettuale e metodologica, la bilancia pende decisamente a favore di "Navigare l'incertezza".

I found no artistry in this book. The author jumps from one topic to another, using examples to support his thesis, but they fall apart with even a slight shift in perspective. The content could have been conveyed in just a tenth of its current length.

Yes, it covers a fair bit “statistics” to make the points raised, so occasionally you have to dive in your memory to recall the maths. Other than that a very comprehensive book that also addresses the philosophical aspects of chance, risk, luck. It times a bit heavy but still a great read.