---
product_id: 341196096
title: "Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction"
price: "531801₫"
currency: VND
in_stock: false
reviews_count: 8
url: https://www.desertcart.vn/products/341196096-superforecasting-the-art-and-science-of-prediction
store_origin: VN
region: Vietnam
---

# 30% more accurate than CIA analysts Accessible methods for any graduate Team-based forecasting boosts precision Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

**Price:** 531801₫
**Availability:** ❌ Out of Stock

## Summary

> 🔮 Master uncertainty with the science of superforecasting — don’t just predict, outperform!

## Quick Answers

- **What is this?** Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
- **How much does it cost?** 531801₫ with free shipping
- **Is it available?** Currently out of stock
- **Where can I buy it?** [www.desertcart.vn](https://www.desertcart.vn/products/341196096-superforecasting-the-art-and-science-of-prediction)

## Best For

- Customers looking for quality international products

## Why This Product

- Free international shipping included
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## Key Features

- • **Beat the Experts:** Outperforms CIA analysts by 30% in prediction accuracy
- • **Engaging & Practical:** Written with storytelling flair for easy, impactful reading
- • **Data-Driven Decisions:** Leverages Bayesian probability and structured analysis, not guesswork
- • **Universal Application:** Techniques accessible to any professional facing uncertainty
- • **Collaborative Intelligence:** Harness the power of team forecasting for sharper insights

## Overview

Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction reveals how ordinary people using structured analytical methods and collaborative intelligence can predict uncertain events with 30% greater accuracy than top intelligence analysts. This accessible, engaging book is a must-read for professionals navigating unpredictable environments, offering practical tools to transform decision-making through data-driven forecasting.

## Description

desertcart.in - Buy Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction book online at best prices in India on desertcart.in. Read Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction book reviews & author details and more at desertcart.in. Free delivery on qualified orders.

Review: Five star book. Must read if you make decisions in uncertain and unpredictable situations. - This is undoubtedly one of the most important book I have read in the recent times. This book will have a lasting impact on any one who is involved in decision making in unpredictable world. If you regularly deal with uncertainty and chance while making critical decision then this book will be invaluable to you. The book is on the topic of how do you correctly assign the probability on the events that are very uncertain. Some examples given in the book - Will they find traces of polonium poisoning in the exhumed body of Yasar Arafat. Or Will there be another terrorist attack in Europe in the next quarter. Who will win the election. You get the idea...of a kind of uncertainty we are dealing with all these outcomes. The book articulates in great detail the methodology used by few superforecasters, the ordinary folks, to arrive at correct probability of such very uncertain events. These people were all part of Good Judgement project initiated by author and his wife and funded by NIA or something. It ran for 4 years and these superforecasters beat CIA analysts (who had real time field intel) by 30% or so. They used internet, google alerts, Baysian probability etc tools to gather and process the data to arrive at their prediction. Many of these superforecaster have background in computer science, Math, technology and engineering. But the methods can be applied by any graduates. They are not beyond the capabilities of any graduate. It just calls for very structured analytical analysis of data and not basing your decisions on just an intuition. The book also tells us that a team of superforecasters is even more accurate than single superforecaster...provided they freely share the data with each other, independently research and process the data, share their opinion without fear and overall treat each other with respect. The decision making methodology and concept posited in this book has serious practical implications for certain groups of people like for example....stock investors, top executives, business development managers, opinion makers, forecasters etc. The book is written by author with help from Gardner who is a reporter and professional writer. The book is greatly enhanced by this partnership. The book is very easy and interesting read due to Gardner's contribution. I have no hesitation in recommending this splendid book to all who deal with uncertainty in their professional life. Five star Book.
Review: Holistic approach to forecasting for all - The book starts with a slow pace introducing readers to the concept of forecasting on any subject. It covers the probability of military strike to successful launch of new product with some real world examples. If prospective readers are planning to buy this book just to get an insight into some mathematical formula then they will be disappointed. But then this is what makes the book interesting and legible to common readers. The subject becomes interesting from chapter 4 "Super forecasters" and then it really picks up pace. I am only halfway through the book and have started liking the approach. Only shortcoming being the small letters and the print not very clear.

## Features

- Superforecasting The Art and Science of Prediction

## Technical Specifications

| Specification | Value |
|---------------|-------|
| Best Sellers Rank | #228,797 in Books ( See Top 100 in Books ) #62 in Society & Culture (Books) #4,395 in Economics Books #14,185 in Analysis & Strategy |
| Customer Reviews | 4.3 out of 5 stars 4,427 Reviews |

## Images

![Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction - Image 1](https://m.media-amazon.com/images/I/71BGLNXy7ML.jpg)

## Customer Reviews

### ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Five star book. Must read if you make decisions in uncertain and unpredictable situations.
*by G***D on 6 December 2015*

This is undoubtedly one of the most important book I have read in the recent times. This book will have a lasting impact on any one who is involved in decision making in unpredictable world. If you regularly deal with uncertainty and chance while making critical decision then this book will be invaluable to you. The book is on the topic of how do you correctly assign the probability on the events that are very uncertain. Some examples given in the book - Will they find traces of polonium poisoning in the exhumed body of Yasar Arafat. Or Will there be another terrorist attack in Europe in the next quarter. Who will win the election. You get the idea...of a kind of uncertainty we are dealing with all these outcomes. The book articulates in great detail the methodology used by few superforecasters, the ordinary folks, to arrive at correct probability of such very uncertain events. These people were all part of Good Judgement project initiated by author and his wife and funded by NIA or something. It ran for 4 years and these superforecasters beat CIA analysts (who had real time field intel) by 30% or so. They used internet, google alerts, Baysian probability etc tools to gather and process the data to arrive at their prediction. Many of these superforecaster have background in computer science, Math, technology and engineering. But the methods can be applied by any graduates. They are not beyond the capabilities of any graduate. It just calls for very structured analytical analysis of data and not basing your decisions on just an intuition. The book also tells us that a team of superforecasters is even more accurate than single superforecaster...provided they freely share the data with each other, independently research and process the data, share their opinion without fear and overall treat each other with respect. The decision making methodology and concept posited in this book has serious practical implications for certain groups of people like for example....stock investors, top executives, business development managers, opinion makers, forecasters etc. The book is written by author with help from Gardner who is a reporter and professional writer. The book is greatly enhanced by this partnership. The book is very easy and interesting read due to Gardner's contribution. I have no hesitation in recommending this splendid book to all who deal with uncertainty in their professional life. Five star Book.

### ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Holistic approach to forecasting for all
*by A***S on 28 February 2019*

The book starts with a slow pace introducing readers to the concept of forecasting on any subject. It covers the probability of military strike to successful launch of new product with some real world examples. If prospective readers are planning to buy this book just to get an insight into some mathematical formula then they will be disappointed. But then this is what makes the book interesting and legible to common readers. The subject becomes interesting from chapter 4 "Super forecasters" and then it really picks up pace. I am only halfway through the book and have started liking the approach. Only shortcoming being the small letters and the print not very clear.

### ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Improve your decision making skills
*by V***M on 25 June 2016*

A really nice book by Fetlock and Gardner on their findings from the "Good Judgement Project". He talks about 'Superforecasters' and how they can forecast events with high accuracy using their "mathematical way of thinking". This book is not just for people who are into forecasting but for everyone to improve their decision making skills using the tools mentioned in the book. These tools can be added to our framework of "mental models". Some key takeaways: o Have an "inside view/ outside view" approach to decision making. o Know what’s the base rate and avoid "base rate fallacy" o Have a probabilistic way of thinking. o Beliefs are hypothesis that needed to be tested, not treasures that need to be protected. o Take ‘wisdom of the crowd’ and consider different viewpoints like ‘dragonfly-eyed’. o Being aware of cognitive and emotional bias. Verdict: Highly recommended!

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*Product available on Desertcart Vietnam*
*Store origin: VN*
*Last updated: 2026-01-28*